A full institutional-grade equity model covering FY21–FY29E. The thesis centres on Angel One's structural position in India's rising retail participation cycle, and asks whether the market is pricing in enough of the SEBI headwind.
Angel One is the second-largest listed discount broker in India by active clients. It sits at the intersection of three irreversible long-term trends: India's demographic dividend, the formalisation of household savings, and the shift from physical to digital financial services. The near-term overhang is regulatory, but the structural case remains intact.
India's demat account base grew from 40M in FY21 to over 170M by FY25. Penetration as a share of the adult population remains below 15%, versus 55%+ in the US. Angel One's 7.3M active client base in FY24 represents a fraction of the addressable market.
Angel One runs a fully digital onboarding, execution, and servicing stack. With near-zero marginal cost per client, incremental revenue falls to the bottom line at >40% conversion. Its cost-to-income ratio has structurally compressed from 71% in FY21 to 61% in FY24.
Margin Trading Facility (MTF) book grew from ₹11.7B in FY21 to ₹25.4B in FY24, generating ₹7.9B in interest income, a 18.4% share of total revenue. Unlike brokerage, MTF income is recurring, credit-spread-driven, and highly margin-accretive.
Angel One has systematically built distribution revenue (mutual funds, insurance) and DP income. These non-brokerage streams now represent ~30% of revenue, reducing dependence on F&O volumes and providing a floor in low-volatility market environments.
Unlike traditional full-service brokers, Angel One's model is engineered for scale. All four revenue streams share the same client acquisition funnel, the same technology stack, and the same digital touchpoint, the SuperApp.
F&O flat-fee commission + equity delivery charges. Driven by order volume and F&O participation. Most sensitive to SEBI regulatory changes on STT and commission structure.
Interest on Margin Trading Facility. Priced at 18–24% annualised. Sticky, recurring, and grows with both book size and rate environment. ₹7.9B in FY24.
Depository Participant charges, account maintenance, pledge fees, and other ancillary income. Low-volatility, subscription-like revenue base that scales with the client book.
MF and insurance distribution fees. Currently subscale but strategically important. Positions Angel One as a full-service wealth platform, the highest-LTV revenue category long-term.
All figures from audited consolidated annual reports. FY21–FY24 sourced from published PDFs filed with BSE/NSE. FY25 preliminary figures confirmed from the 29th Annual Report (2024–25).
| Metric (₹ Millions) | FY21A | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 12,897 | 23,051 | 30,211 | 42,798 | 52,477 |
| YoY Growth | – | +78.7% | +31.1% | +41.7% | +22.6% |
| MTF Interest Income | 1,692 | 3,328 | 5,195 | 7,859 | – |
| Employee Costs | 1,644 | 2,809 | 3,979 | 5,585 | – |
| Finance Costs | 596 | 721 | 895 | 1,359 | – |
| D&A | 174 | 188 | 303 | 493 | – |
| PBT | 3,982 | 8,367 | 11,918 | 15,137 | – |
| Tax | 1,078 | 2,117 | 3,016 | 3,881 | – |
| PAT | 2,904 | 6,248 | 8,900 | 11,255 | 11,721 |
| PAT Margin | 22.5% | 27.1% | 29.5% | 26.3% | 22.3% |
| EBITDA | 4,752 | 9,275 | 13,116 | 16,990 | 16,954 |
| EBITDA Margin | 36.8% | 40.2% | 43.4% | 39.7% | 32.3% |
| Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 47,822 | 72,199 | 74,777 | 132,537 | – |
| Borrowings (MTF) | 11,714 | 12,577 | 7,872 | 25,411 | – |
| Total Equity | 11,021 | 15,844 | 21,616 | 30,385 | – |
| Per Share (Post-Split Adjusted, ₹) | |||||
| Diluted Shares (M) | 775.1 | 839.3 | 847.0 | 854.1 | 908.5 |
| Diluted EPS | 3.75 | 7.44 | 10.51 | 13.18 | 12.90 |
† EBITDA = PBT + Finance Costs + D&A. Excludes impairment for clean operating view. All figures audited consolidated (Ind AS). FY25 PAT and Revenue from 29th Annual Report. Per-share figures adjusted for 1:10 stock split effective Feb 26, 2026.
In August 2024, SEBI issued a circular restructuring the F&O fee framework, restricting volume-linked discounts between exchanges and brokers, reducing lot sizes, and tightening margin requirements for retail participants. This directly compressed Angel One's brokerage yield per order. The impact is visible in FY25: EBITDA margin fell 740 basis points from 39.7% to 32.3%, despite revenue growing 22.6%. PAT growth slowed to 4.1% from 26.5% in FY24. The model's base case assumes a gradual margin recovery to 38% by FY29E as F&O volumes re-normalise and distribution revenue scales.
FY25 demonstrates a structural lesson: in a zero-marginal-cost digital business, regulatory yield compression hits EBITDA directly with no natural offset. Angel One could not pass through the fee reduction to clients (who actively benefited from lower charges). The FY25 PAT flatness (₹11,255M → ₹11,721M) despite double-digit revenue growth is the single most important data point in this model, it sets the base for the recovery thesis in FY26–FY29E.
The model is built to the same standard as a sell-side initiating coverage. Every forecast is formula-driven from a central assumptions sheet, no hardcoded cells in the output. Historical data sourced from five audited annual reports (FY21–FY25).
Integrated Income Statement, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow. FY21–FY24 actuals from audited PDFs. FY25E–FY29E driven by top-down assumptions on revenue growth, EBITDA margin recovery, CapEx, and working capital. 82 rows across three statements.
FCFF-based discounted cash flow. WACC computed from CAPM (beta 1.2, risk-free 7%, ERP 6%). Terminal value via Gordon Growth (5% TV growth). Equity bridge: EV − Net Debt ÷ diluted shares. Implied price vs market price of ₹232.60.
EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, and P/E multiples for Angel One vs. peers: MOFSL, 5Paisa, IIFL Securities, Anand Rathi Wealth, Nuvama. Implied price range from blended peer multiples.
Bull / Base / Bear cases. Bull: SEBI reversal + F&O boom, 41% EBITDA margins by FY28. Bear: sustained regulatory compression, margin floor at 30%, PAT CAGR of 6%. Base: gradual recovery as modelled.
Two-dimensional sensitivity: DCF price across WACC (10–14%) vs terminal growth rate (3–7%). Second table: price vs EBITDA margin in terminal year. 25 price outputs per table.
One-page summary pulling live values from all tabs. Key output: implied price, upside/downside, EBITDA margin trajectory chart, revenue waterfall by stream, and a valuation bridge chart.
A thesis is only as credible as its risk disclosure. These are the six material risks that can derail the base case, each is explicitly stress-tested in the Bear scenario.
The complete 6-tab Excel model is available below. It includes all historical data populated from audited annual reports, a live DCF with adjustable assumptions, scenario toggles, and the executive dashboard.