Macro · Markets · Signals

Dhruv Mandavkar.

Equity research and macro analysis. Physical economy first, financial economy second. London-bound by 2027.

First Class Honours, Sussex 2024 · CFA Level 1 candidate, August 2026 · 11 published research pieces · Mannheim & WU Vienna scholarships

View work About

Research analyst. Physical signals first, financial models second.

01
Origin

Financial behaviour doesn't generalise across borders. I learned that growing up across Saudi Arabia, South Korea, China, and India, four different relationships with money and risk. Most Western models assume Western financial psychology. The gaps between that assumption and how the rest of the world actually behaves are where the signals live.

02
Lens

The physical economy moves before the financial one prices it. So before I open an earnings report, I check upstream: Baltic Dry, LNG spot, commodity flows, shipping disruptions. Red Sea rerouting, Hormuz risk, rare earth concentration. The lag between physical disruption and financial adjustment is where the research questions are.

03
Method

Every piece follows the same path: start with a physical or macro signal, verify it across sources, trace it down to sectors and securities. The live dashboard pulls 21 FRED indicators on every load; the 12 structural theses connect supply-chain shifts to specific asset classes. The point isn't prediction. It's surfacing questions before they become consensus.

04
Maritime

Maritime trade is my particular focus, the physical infrastructure most models treat as given. Chinese yards build over half the world's ships, run the largest merchant fleet, and have embedded military conversion requirements into civilian vessels by law since 2016. Beidou tracks the entire fleet in real time; Chinese waters went dark to global AIS in 2021. These are freight, energy-security, and capital-allocation stories, not defence ones.

05
Now

Equity Research Intern at Omega Portfolio Advisors by MoneyWorks4Me in Pune, covering large-, mid-, and flexi-cap mutual funds. Before that, Junior Research Associate at Sussex Business School, under 0.1% of 5,500+ applicants. First-Class dissertation on fraud, regulation, and Reddit-sentiment effects on crypto volatility, event study, EGARCH(1,1), Bloomberg, STATA, Python. CFA Level 1, August 2026.

Background
🎓
Education
BSc FinTech, First Class Honours
University of Sussex · 2021–2024
📝
Dissertation · First Class
Fraud, Regulation & Sentiment Effects on Crypto vs. Traditional Securities Volatility
Event study · EGARCH(1,1) · Granger causality · Bloomberg Terminal · STATA · Python · Reddit NLP
📊
Currently
CFA Level 1 Candidate
Exam: August 2026
International
Mannheim Business School · WU Vienna
90% scholarship, competitive selection
🌍
Languages
English · Hindi · Marathi · Urdu · Mandarin
Native & professional proficiency · Mandarin elementary
Research Framework

Macro to Micro

I start with the physical economy and work down to individual securities. The signals that matter most arrive first at the physical layer and last at the financial one.

01 Physical signals, BDI, copper, LNG, yield curve, credit spreads
02 Geopolitical overlay, chokepoints, supply chains, energy regime
03 Sector implications, who faces margin compression, repricing
04 Individual securities, only after the first three layers narrow the funnel
Read the full framework →

Where I've worked.

Feb 2026 – Present
Pune, India
Equity Research Intern
Omega Portfolio Advisors by MoneyWorks4Me
SEBI-Registered RIA Firm · Equity Mutual Fund Coverage

Research and advisory layer of Third Rock Wealth (TRW), the firm's mutual fund distribution arm. Deep-dive equity fund research across large-, mid-, and flexi-cap, client-facing recommendation reports, and systematic fund-evaluation frameworks.

  • Built a systematic screening model across the full SEBI active fund universe on a 3-layer method (pass/fail gates, category-adapted scoring, qualitative overlay): 177 equity funds across 8 categories, 96 hybrid (benchmark-distortion-aware), 134 sector and thematic, 64 solution-oriented and FoFs.
  • Produced client-facing fund recommendation reports combining quantitative metrics (Sharpe, beta, rolling alpha) with qualitative manager and mandate assessment
  • Conducting coverage of Angel One Ltd (NSE: ANGELONE), 6-tab institutional valuation model including 3-statement model, DCF, EV/EBITDA comparables, scenario and sensitivity analysis
  • Analysing AUM trends, inflow/outflow dynamics, and category rotation across India's ₹73+ Lakh Cr mutual fund industry (March 2026)
2023 – 2024
Brighton, UK
Junior Research Associate
Sussex Business School
<0.1% acceptance rate · 5,500+ applicants

A competitive research post embedded in the faculty's active research agenda. Worked alongside academic researchers on empirical financial research using econometric methods.

  • Built a 15-year daily price dataset (5,372 observations) across BTC, ETH, S&P 500, FTSE 100, Nikkei 225, and crypto indices on Bloomberg Terminal, the foundation for my dissertation's event study and EGARCH analysis
  • Applied EGARCH(1,1) volatility modelling, Granger causality testing, and event-study methodology under faculty supervision, directly in the dissertation that earned First Class
  • Produced two original findings: the regulatory asymmetry paradox (regulation stabilises traditional securities while amplifying crypto volatility) and the sentiment contagion mechanism (Reddit negativity Granger-causes crypto vol at a single lag)
  • Supervised by Dr. Malgorzata Sulimierska; direct faculty access shaped my approach to empirical research design
2023 – Present
Personal
Personal Investment Portfolio
Self-Directed, UK & Global Equities
65% MWRR since 2019 · Discretionary L/S · Indian Equities

Self-funded discretionary portfolio on a macro-first selection framework. 65% cumulative money-weighted return since inception (2019), ~45% annual profit on deployed capital. Concentrated long/short across Indian equities, sector and timing decisions driven by physical-economy signals before stock analysis.

  • Benchmark context: the Nifty 50 returned ~95% over the same period. This is concentrated L/S, higher volatility and drawdown than a passive index, not a like-for-like comparison.
  • Selection framework: physical-economy signals (BDI, copper, credit spreads) drive sector and timing calls before individual stock analysis
  • Risk management: position sizing tied to conviction × signal confirmation; trimmed into strength when macro regime indicators flipped
  • Currently building equity baskets across sectors surfaced by macro signal tracking and fundamental screening

What I work with.

Technical tools and domain knowledge, built through research, internship work, and independent projects.

Financial Modelling
DCF Valuation 3-Statement Modelling Comparable Company Analysis Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis Fund Performance Attribution Equity Research Reports
Quantitative & Data
Python, pandas, matplotlib, openpyxl Excel, Advanced (formulas, VBA-ready) STATA, Econometrics, Panel Data R, Statistical Analysis FRED API · BSE / NSE Data Python, PRAW · VADER · Pandas Bloomberg Terminal
Research Domains
Macro Signal Analysis India Equity Markets Commodity Markets Mutual Fund Research Shipping & Trade Flows Geopolitical Risk Pricing
Data Sources I Use
FRED (St. Louis Fed) AMFI India, Monthly Inflow Data SEBI Filings & Disclosures BSE / NSE, Company Filings Baltic Exchange, BDI Weekly Screener.in · Tijori Finance

What I'm building.

Independent research and analytical projects. Finance, data, and the tools I wish already existed.

  1. 03
    Macro · Forecasts · Published

    Horizon 2040.

    Four forecasts the market prices at zero. Quantum cryptography migration, glass-substrate storage stranding utility demand, humanoid cost-parity timing, and AI reflexivity degrading price discovery. Marked as forecasts, with explicit falsifiability conditions per thesis.

    • Forecasts
    • Macro research
    • Live signal links
    Read the research →
  2. 04
    Macro · Geopolitics · 12 theses

    Macro geopolitics, structural transmission.

    Four research verticals spanning supply chain chokepoints, energy regime change, demographic divergence, and military conflict transmission. Helium to semiconductors, LNG to shadow fleets, China's demographic cliff to Gulf SWF reallocation.

    Start with supply chains →
  3. 05
    Finance · Fund analysis · Published

    Fund screening model, full SEBI universe.

    A 4-phase systematic framework covering the full Indian active mutual fund universe. Phase 1: 8 equity categories, 177 funds scored. Phase 2: 7 hybrid categories, 96 scored, with benchmark-distortion-aware frameworks. Phase 3: 20 sector and thematic themes, 134 comparison-ready. Phase 4: solution-oriented and FoFs, 64 funds across 4 special categories. Built at Omega to power TRW client recommendations. Data: March 2026.

    • Excel
    • Python
    • Full SEBI universe
    • AMFI data
    Methodology & findings →
  4. 06
    FinTech · Financial econometrics · 2024 dissertation

    Crypto volatility event study.

    Empirical study of how fraud events, regulatory interventions, and Reddit sentiment affect the price volatility of cryptocurrencies versus traditional securities, July 2010 to March 2025. Event study analysis, EGARCH(1,1) volatility modelling, Granger causality. 5,372 daily observations, 30 events. Sussex Business School, supervised by Dr. Malgorzata Sulimierska.

    • STATA 17
    • Bloomberg Terminal
    • Python · VADER · PRAW
    • EGARCH
    • First Class
    Read dissertation →

Research.

Long-form analysis, live signals, and strategic dossiers.

Five positions I'll defend.

Opinions, not predictions. I'm willing to be wrong.

01 Commodities
"Physical signals are the only macro data that can't be managed."
The evidence

The Baltic Dry Index doesn't have an investor relations team. Corn doesn't have forward guidance. LNG spot prices don't get revised three months later. When physical commodity signals diverge from equity markets or central bank narratives, I trust the ships, the grain, and the gas. One of them is reflecting reality, and it's never the press release.

02 India
"India's retail investment boom is structurally underestimated."
The evidence

India went from 40 million to over 190 million demat accounts in six years. Global analysts model this as a cyclical trend. It isn't. It's a structural shift driven by smartphones, UPI infrastructure, and a generation that trusts markets over bank deposits. The wealth management industry hasn't priced the scale of what's coming, and the monthly SIP data is the cleanest signal of whether it continues.

03 Energy
"Nuclear energy is the most mispriced asset class in the world right now."
The evidence

AI data centres are repricing power demand faster than grids can respond, a single LLM training run draws as much electricity as a small city for weeks. Uranium supply is constrained, mine output lags reactor restarts, and enrichment is concentrated in Russia and China. New builds take a decade. Companies that own operating nuclear capacity today are priced for a low-growth utility world, not an AI power supercycle. The repricing has started, nowhere near done.

04 Geopolitics
"Geopolitical realignment creates pricing dislocations that DCF can't see."
The evidence

The Hormuz closure threatens one-third of global helium supply and 20% of LNG simultaneously. The Russia-Ukraine war rewired European energy infrastructure permanently. Standard valuation models don't price geopolitical risk, they can't, because the inputs don't appear in earnings forecasts or discount rates. Which means every dislocation it creates is, for a brief window, mispriced. That window is where the trade is.

05 Market Microstructure
"Crypto regulation creates more volatility than it suppresses, at least in the short run."
The evidence

Not a political position, it's consistent with my dissertation findings on crypto volatility around regulatory events. In the data, regulation stabilised traditional securities (the S&P 500 barely moved) while amplifying crypto volatility. The mechanism is speculative: announcements reset participation expectations, triggering price discovery in a market with no institutional stabiliser. MiCA may change that over 5–10 years as the institutional base deepens. For now, regulation and crypto volatility move together, not against.

Currently.

What I'm tracking, reading, and building right now.

Last updated: April 2026

Tracking
  • US 2s10s yield curve and HY OAS, recession timing
  • USDJPY and VIX regime, carry trade and risk appetite
  • Baltic Dry Index and copper-gold ratio, physical economy
  • India AMFI monthly SIP flows, domestic equity appetite
  • DXY and EURUSD, global capital flow direction
  • Brent crude and USDINR, India current account pressure
  • Fed Funds rate and IG spreads, credit regime
  • India 10Y yield, RBI monetary policy expectations
  • FTSE 250 and EUR IG spreads, UK mid-cap and European credit conditions
  • UK gilts 10Y and GBP/EUR, fiscal policy transmission and sterling positioning
View live dashboard →
Building
Angel One Ltd valuation model In Progress
6-tab institutional equity model (NSE: ANGELONE)
Macro Signal Tracker Live
21 indicators across rates, credit, FX, commodities, India
Macro Geopolitics research Published
12 structural theses, supply chains, energy, demographics, conflict
Horizon 2040 Published
Four unpriced structural risks the market prices at zero
Fund Screening Model, Full SEBI Universe Complete
273 scored + 198 comparison-ready, 4 phases covering full SEBI active fund universe
Thinking About

What happens when the yen carry trade fully unwinds? BOJ normalisation is unwinding the largest carry trade in history. If USDJPY breaks below 140, forced deleveraging cascades through every risk asset at once. Where I lean: most portfolios have zero hedging for this. The asymmetry favours owning volatility, the unwind will be non-linear, with a cross-asset correlation spike unlike anything since March 2020.

Can the green transition happen at current copper prices? Electrification, grid buildout, and data-centre cooling all need copper, but mining capex peaked a decade ago and new projects take 10+ years. Where I lean: no. The transition needs prices well above spot to pull in new supply, so either copper reprices up or the timeline slips. Either way, miners with permitted reserves are undervalued.

Who absorbs the margin compression from Chinese overcapacity? China is exporting deflation, overcapacity in EVs, solar, and steel dumping cheap goods globally. Tariffs slow it, not stop it. Where I lean: European industrials are most exposed, especially chemicals and basic materials already squeezed by energy costs. Indian manufacturers have partial tariff cover but stay vulnerable on inputs. Watch BASF, Thyssenkrupp, and Tata Steel Europe.

Who controls the uranium enrichment bottleneck? Even if the West restarts nuclear at scale, enrichment is the chokepoint. Russia's Rosatom controls ~40% of global enrichment; US and European centrifuge capacity takes years to build. Where I lean: enrichment is the real constraint, not reactor builds or even mining. Whoever secures it first sets the terms for the nuclear renaissance. An energy-security story disguised as a utility one.

Writing.

Thinking out loud about markets, signals, and ideas that keep me up at night. At mandavkar.uk/blog, also coming to Substack.

January 2026 Read →
Macro · Shipping · Signals

Baltic Dry tells you what GDP won't

What shipping data says about where the global economy actually is, versus where governments say it is.

February 2026 Read →
India · Markets · Wealth Management

India's 100M demat account moment

Structural shift or retail mania? Why global analysts are underestimating the most important wealth management story in emerging markets.

January 2026 Read →
Macro · Fixed Income · Signals

The yield curve uninverts. That's when you should actually worry.

Everyone watches the inversion. Almost nobody watches what happens next, and that's where the real signal is.

February 2026 Read →
Geopolitics · Energy · Scenario Analysis

What happens if the Strait of Hormuz closes, and for how long?

Scenario analysis across 4 time horizons. 20% of global oil transit. Country-by-country impact on crude, inflation, and GDP.

February 2026 Read →
Geopolitics · Shipping · Inflation

The Red Sea rerouting is the most underpriced macro risk of 2026

30–40% longer routes. Container cost spikes. European inflationary tail risks. Why this doesn't show up in equity analyst models.

March 2026 Read →
India · Regulation · Equity Research

SEBI won. Now what happens to Indian discount brokers?

F&O restrictions, 90% of retail traders losing money, and a regulator that actually used the data. What it means for Angel One, Zerodha, 5Paisa.

January 2026 Read →
Commodities · Macro · Signals

Copper is not a commodity. It's a global IQ test.

Dr. Copper as a leading indicator. Why copper-equity divergence tells you more than the Bloomberg headline ever will.

February 2026 Read →
India · Markets · Retail Flows

India's SIP machine: how systematic investments changed equity market dynamics

₹32,000+ Cr a month, every month, regardless of market levels (March 2026 record: ₹32,087 Cr). What this floor effect means for Indian equity drawdowns, and what happens when it reverses.

January 2026 Read →
FX · Macro · Risk

The carry trade always works until it doesn't

How the most consistent strategy in FX markets becomes the most dangerous, and what the unwind looks like before it happens.

March 2026 Read →
Energy · Commodities · Signals

What the LNG forward curve is pricing that equity markets aren't

Reading the energy market's forward curve as a macro signal. The JKM-TTF-Henry Hub spread, what contango tells you, and why European industrial margins are at risk.

March 2026 Read →
AI · Equity Research · Markets

What AI actually automates in equity research, and what it can't

LLMs can parse filings and normalise data. They cannot construct variant perception. Where AI helps, where it fails, and what it means for the future of research.

Coming Soon
China · Commodities · Signals

I track coal imports before calling China's industrial recovery

Why watching Chinese coal import data is the most honest read on whether Beijing's stimulus is actually working.

Coming Soon
Equity Research · Valuation · Markets

What building a valuation model actually teaches you

Three months into an institutional equity model for Angel One, and what it's shown me about how markets misprice structural growth stories.

Let's talk markets.

I'm particularly interested in conversations about macro signals, India's financial infrastructure, commodity markets, and where global capital flows are heading. If you're working on any of that, or hiring for it, I'd like to hear from you.