markets · macro · a public record
equity research and macro
Physical economy first, financial economy second. I build the instruments I read the market with.
First Class Honours, Sussex 2024 · 11 published research pieces · Mannheim & WU Vienna scholarships
I grew up across Saudi Arabia, South Korea, China, and India: four different relationships with money. The gap between Western models and how everyone else actually behaves is where the signals live.
The physical economy moves before the financial one prices it. Before an earnings report, I check upstream: Baltic Dry, LNG spot, Red Sea rerouting, Hormuz risk.
Start with a physical signal, verify it across sources, trace it down to sectors and securities. The point isn't prediction; it's surfacing questions before they become consensus.
Maritime trade is the particular focus. Chinese yards build over half the world's ships, conversion requirements have been law since 2016, and Chinese waters went dark to global AIS in 2021. Freight and energy-security stories, not defence ones.
Equity Research Intern at Omega Portfolio Advisors by MoneyWorks4Me in Pune, where I am also helping build out the firm's mutual fund distribution arm. Before that, Junior Research Associate at Sussex Business School, under 0.1% of 5,500+ applicants. First-Class dissertation on crypto volatility.
I started out analysing other people's businesses. I am now helping build one. The point of the practice is to run my own.
I start with the physical economy and work down to individual securities. The signals that matter most arrive first at the physical layer and last at the financial one.
Equity mutual fund research across the Indian active fund universe, combining quantitative screening with qualitative manager and mandate assessment.
A competitive research post embedded in the faculty's active research agenda.
Self-funded discretionary portfolio, macro-first: 65% money-weighted return since 2019, ~45% annual profit on deployed capital, concentrated long/short across Indian equities.
Built through research, internship work, and things I made for myself.
Independent research, and the tools I wished already existed.
Full institutional models on listed Indian equities: 3-statement, FCFF DCF, peer comps, scenario analysis. Currently covering Angel One Ltd (NSE: ANGELONE).
21 macro indicators across rates, credit, FX, commodities, and India flows, pulled fresh from FRED on every load.
Every company, a century of returns, eleven sectors in bold colour. Fifteen hand-drawn charts, no charting library, built from source data.
Four long-range forecasts the market prices near zero, each marked as forecast with explicit falsifiability conditions.
Twelve theses across supply chains, energy, demographics, and conflict: helium to semiconductors, LNG to shadow fleets.
How fraud, regulation, and Reddit sentiment move crypto volatility versus traditional securities: 5,372 daily observations, 30 events, EGARCH(1,1). First Class at Sussex.
Problems I hit in my own work, polished into something anyone can use.
A tachistoscope for 200-page annual reports: flashes one word at a time, holds the focus letter dead-still, keeps the live page beside the stream, auto-pauses on every exhibit.
Long-form analysis, live signals, and strategic dossiers.
Long-form macro research. Structural shifts the market prices at zero.
Live macro signal dashboard. 21 instruments across rates, credit, FX, and commodities.
Chinese shipbuilding dominance, Beidou fleet tracking, and the COSCO port network.
The world's 12 critical maritime passages. Geography, volumes, and financial transmission.
The price is the headline. Demand destruction is the story — eight transmission channels, one structural inflection point.
12 structural theses across supply chains, energy, demographics, and conflict.
Opinions, not predictions. I'm willing to be wrong.
"Physical signals are the only macro data that can't be managed."
The Baltic Dry Index doesn't have an investor relations team, and LNG spot doesn't get revised three months later. When physical signals diverge from the narrative, I trust the ships.
"India's retail investment boom is structurally underestimated."
India went from 40 million to over 190 million demat accounts in six years, on smartphones, UPI, and a generation that trusts markets over deposits. Monthly SIP data is the cleanest signal of whether it continues.
"Nuclear energy is the most mispriced asset class in the world right now."
AI data centres are repricing power demand faster than grids can respond, while uranium supply lags and new builds take a decade. Operating nuclear capacity is still priced for a low-growth utility world.
"Geopolitical realignment creates pricing dislocations that DCF can't see."
A Hormuz closure threatens a third of global helium and 20% of LNG at once. Valuation models cannot price that, so every dislocation is briefly mispriced; that window is where the trade is.
"Crypto regulation creates more volatility than it suppresses, at least in the short run."
In my dissertation data, regulation stabilised traditional securities while amplifying crypto volatility. MiCA may change that over 5 to 10 years; for now the two move together, not against.
What I'm tracking, reading, and building right now.
Last updated: April 2026
What happens when the yen carry trade fully unwinds? Where I lean: most portfolios carry zero hedge for it, so the asymmetry favours owning volatility.
Can the green transition happen at current copper prices? Where I lean: no; either copper reprices up or the timeline slips, and miners with permitted reserves are undervalued.
Who absorbs the margin compression from Chinese overcapacity? Where I lean: European industrials, especially chemicals already squeezed by energy costs. Watch BASF, Thyssenkrupp, Tata Steel Europe.
Who controls the uranium enrichment bottleneck? Rosatom holds ~40% of global enrichment. Where I lean: enrichment, not reactors or mining, is the real constraint.
Thinking out loud about markets and signals. Also on Substack.
A cheaper reserve currency loosens financial conditions everywhere at once. The move, and the level that would confirm the trend.
January 2026 Read →What shipping data says about where the global economy actually is, versus where governments say it is.
February 2026 Read →Structural shift or retail mania? The wealth-management story global analysts keep underrating.
January 2026 Read →Everyone watches the inversion. Almost nobody watches what happens next, and that's where the real signal is.
February 2026 Read →Scenario analysis across 4 time horizons. 20% of global oil transit. Country-by-country impact on crude, inflation, and GDP.
February 2026 Read →30–40% longer routes, container cost spikes, and a tail risk absent from sell-side models.
March 2026 Read →F&O curbs, 90% of retail traders losing money, and what it does to Angel One, Zerodha, 5Paisa.
January 2026 Read →Dr. Copper as a leading indicator. Why copper-equity divergence tells you more than the Bloomberg headline ever will.
February 2026 Read →₹32,087 Cr in March 2026, and a bid that shows up regardless of price. What breaks when it reverses.
January 2026 Read →How the most consistent strategy in FX becomes the most dangerous, and what the unwind looks like first.
March 2026 Read →The JKM-TTF-Henry Hub spread as a macro signal, and the European industrial margins it threatens.
March 2026 Read →LLMs parse filings and normalise data. They cannot construct variant perception.